The Bitcoin (BTC) market is showing signs of cooling down from a short-term overheated phase. Cryptoquant, an on-chain data specialist, analyzed that the current adjustment phase is relatively mild compared to previous sharp declines, suggesting that the short-term correction could be relatively limited.
Cryptoquant is particularly measuring market overheating through the data of 'holdings less than 1 day to 1 week'. Typically, when this indicator rises sharply, short-term selling tends to expand and often leads to a steep decline. However, this adjustment showed a shorter and weaker overheating pattern compared to last year's March-October and this year's January-April. Therefore, the assessment is that future declines may be limited, with the possibility of a rebound in a short period.
Cryptoquant noted, "Considering the recent rise was not significant, this correction could be a healthy circulation process" and predicted that "if macroeconomic conditions and investment sentiment improve from the second half of 2025, an upward trend could emerge." The diagnosis is closer to a momentary pause rather than an extreme adjustment.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $118,000 (approximately 164.02 million won). Some long-term holders are selling their holdings after the sharp price surge, showing a transition to a distribution phase. Short-term holders are also seeing reduced returns, leading to increased overall selling pressure in the market and accumulating rally fatigue.
Additionally, Matrixport, a cryptocurrency financial company, warned that investors might halt the upward trend while focusing on major macroeconomic variables such as Federal Reserve policy decisions and White House announcements. Particularly, as Bitcoin encountered obstacles between August and September and has historically shown weakness during this period, profit-taking or a sideways market could unfold.
Meanwhile, the trading analysis channel Bitcoin Vector stated that Bitcoin is testing its key resistance line. Currently, the technical analysis shows a major resistance line at $120,500 (approximately 172.55 million won) and a key support line at $112,500 (approximately 156.38 million won). According to the analysis, as long as this range is maintained, the correction could be a buying opportunity, and breaking through the upper resistance could also mean the possibility of resuming a medium-term rally.
Overall, this short-term correction is interpreted as a healthy restructuring process for the market to move away from an overbought state. From an investor's perspective, it's a time to gauge re-entry timing rather than a sharp decline, and attention should be paid to future macroeconomic environments and changes in investment sentiment.
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