Key Week Ahead: Massive Realized Profit Returns, STH-RP Defense Battle Begins ⚔️
Following my last update on Realized Profit (see quoted tweet below), on 8/29—just three days ago—BTC touched the STH-RP, and we saw the fourth major spike in Realized Profit since 74K‼️ Every time we see a surge like this, it signals significant energy drain from the market—and this time is no exception.
What’s interesting is: 8/29 was a Friday, the day BTC first tapped STH-RP, and then we went straight into the weekend’s dead zone. Price action basically hit pause, and BTC stuck right above STH-RP—a rare sight.
Historically, price doesn’t linger around STH-RP for long:
➡️ Either STH-RP proves to be solid support, price bounces and heads higher,
➡️ Or it breaks down, and we enter a more painful period.
Today kicks off a new week and the first day of September. Personally, I don’t think it’ll take long for the market to show its hand. The smoke is rising, the war drums are beating—the battle to defend STH-RP is about to begin... 🗡
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Some of my personal bias:
Given all the recent top signals, including:
➡️ BTC’s new high was a fakeout—I openly posted my bearish stance (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…)
➡️ Triple RUP divergence & massive Realized Profit spike (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…)
➡️ US capital sentiment still looking weak (x.com/market_beggar/status/196...…)
Unless we get some major bullish catalyst soon, I think the odds of STH-RP breaking down are higher... 📉
Just my two sats for reference.
Trading-wise:
🔸 As I said in my last US capital update, I have no swing trade plans short-term or mid-term.
🔸 If price is below STH-RP, I’m not going long on any swings.
🔸 Still holding my long-term short from 118K avg entry, 1.11x leverage.
(Last position update: x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…)
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📝 Notes for new followers:
1️⃣ I’m aiming to catch BTC’s macro top this cycle, not just a local top.
2️⃣ I run two main trading systems: a cycle spot system and a swing contract system.
3️⃣ The swing system is always running; my “top hunting” series is about spot exit/short strategies.
4️⃣ I closed out spot around 103K avg at the start of the year, and have been farming funding ever since.
5️⃣ I’m not a perma-bear—I went full long on US stocks on 4/9 (x.com/market_beggar/status/190...…), but I do believe BTC is nearing the top.
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📚 Related reads:
Realized Profit intro & analysis:
x.com/market_beggar/status/186...…
What massive Realized Profit means:
x.com/market_beggar/status/188...…
STH-RP lifeline explained:
x.com/market_beggar/status/188...…
twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
