In the last week of July 2025, the cryptocurrency market showed an overall mild upward trend, with a conservative investment approach in line with global macroeconomic variables. According to the weekly research report by AM Management, Bitcoin (BTC) closed at $119,415, rising 1.83% week-on-week, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 1.56% to approximately $3.89 trillion. However, with the approach of technical resistance zones and major macro events, the market sentiment appears to be increasingly cautious.
The research analyzed that while Bitcoin is attempting a technical rebound with an unfilled gap in the CME futures market, it is likely to face resistance near the $12,000 mark. Ethereum (ETH) also led the market recovery with a rising dominance, but remains in a limited upward trend despite the overall recovery in risk asset preference. AM Management particularly noted that as Tether (USDT) dominance dropped to 4.21%, it suggests a temporary increase in market participants' risk tolerance.
Meanwhile, a partial agreement on high tariffs between the US and Europe has spread short-term market relief. However, with the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 30th and major employment indicators pending, the market buying sentiment is constrained as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts. Citing CME FedWatch data, the AM Management report presented a 97.4% possibility of rate maintenance and suggested a conservative adjustment strategy over emerging market strategies.
In terms of position-based supply and demand, major players, including leverage funds, are reducing long positions and expanding short positions, moving to realize short-term profits. Asset management firms are slightly reducing positions on both long and short sides, expected to maintain a neutral perspective for the time being. This implies that market strength may vary depending on whether Bitcoin can break through the technical resistance zone of $12,000.
The report pointed out that while limited rebounds of some altcoins are possible considering events like the Helium halving, Sui (SUI) lockup release, and mainnet events for KAITO and LayerZero, widespread expansion requires a prerequisite of Bitcoin dominance decline. It also warned that if dominance fails to fall below 60%, altcoins could experience more significant drops during short-term adjustments.
In conclusion, AM Management's research forecasts continued interplay between policy variables and technical support lines, suggesting the market requires a cautious approach despite short-term rebounds. The altcoin expansion flow will be determined by Bitcoin dominance, with a high likelihood of a limited cyclical market in the current situation.
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