Bitcoin (BTC)'s volatility indicator has dropped to its lowest level in 10 months, sending a signal that the market is preparing for another significant movement. Historically, similar indicator trends have often been interpreted as a precursor to price surges, drawing increased investor attention.
According to cryptocurrency market information provider Lookonchain, Bitcoin's 30-day Realized Volatility Index (BVIV) has fallen to 40.84. This is a low figure that has only appeared 21 times in 149 weeks since September 2022, and when BVIV drops below 45, it typically coincides with price establishing local bottoms or transitioning to an upward trend. In the most recent similar pattern in September 2023, Bitcoin rose nearly 50% in just over a month, starting from $26,000.
Particularly, the points where BVIV dropped below 45 in the past year have consistently overlapped with strong price rebounds or consolidation periods. This supports the analysis that the current low volatility could signify a potential transition to a medium to long-term upward trend. However, as clear buying pressure has not yet been detected, it is expected that the direction will be determined after a period of adjustment and accumulation.
Additionally, on-chain analytics firm glassnode reported that the realized market cap of short-term holders has decreased by approximately -8%. They explain this as a strong accumulation phase that has consistently appeared before the start of previous bull markets. If the market repeats past patterns, this low volatility period could potentially serve as a catalyst for an upward trend.
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