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貝格先生🐢
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Narrative Trader｜On-Chain Analyst｜Index Investor 📰鏈上週報、教學、分析 ⭐️可以先參觀主頁的 highlight 區 以交易為生；已清倉逃頂；無群組 商務 TG：@colin_the_beggar 註冊 #Cryptocom 享最高手續費折扣👇
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Signal Clone Analysis
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貝格先生🐢
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The Bitfinex whale who quietly increased his BTC holdings🐳 I don’t know if you remember that I once shared Bitfinex’s BTC whale indicator. Let me briefly review it for you: ➡️ Bitfinex is an established exchange with many crypto-native whale ➡️ Bitfinex whale often like to build positions on the left side, buying frantically when prices fall and selling frantically when prices rise. Around the end of July, Bitfinex whale seem to be quietly increasing their positions again...👇: We search for "BTCUSDLONGS" on TradingView and get a chart. It shows the total BTC spot leverage holdings on Bitfinex. The indicator in the attached figure is Bitfinex Margin Long Size. It can be regarded as an "improved version of BTCUSDLONGS". It is to calculate the total scale of USD+USDT leveraged lending in the entire Bitfinex exchange. More sensitive and comprehensive than simple BTCUSDLONGS✅ As shown in the figure: ➡️ When the price falls, whale may not necessarily open a position; however, whale usually open a position when the price falls.➡️ After opening a position, as soon as there is a clear upward trend, they will slowly close their positions.➡️ In summary, their holdings often show an inverse relationship with the price. The latest opening and closing of BTC positions by Bitfinex's whale. Appeared at the end of 2024 when BTC peaked: it increased its position all the way to 74K, As the price resumed its upward trend, it gradually closed its positions to profit during this period of growth. Around late July of this year, the BTC whale on Bitfinex seemed to start selling again. The holdings began to rise slowly, and BTC did not fall immediately at the beginning of the position building. Instead, I did a "New High Stop Hunt" first (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…）， The decline since August 14th has begun again, and during this period, most whale have maintained the pace of building positions. It is in line with the rules of its historical position building. If we insist on being precise, the current holdings of whale have not reached the previous high (red dotted line). If the price does not rise strongly next, but continues to fall, That may mean that there is still room for whale to build positions, provided that the market continues to fall. In short, perhaps the BTC whale on Bitfinex saw something, but there is no answer to this question; However, if its holdings rise to the red dotted area in the attached figure in the future, That may mean that BTC may have a chance to usher in a wave of growth, although it is still some distance away. The above information is shared with you, I wonder what you think 🧐 // The above is today’s sharing, I hope it will be helpful to you 🫡 The Bitfinex Margin Long Size mentioned in the article is a paid indicator developed by @coinkarma_. Interested readers can visit their official website to check it out, where they can try it for free for 14 days. If you like it after using it, you can use my "invitation code in the comment area below" to register. Enjoy an additional 15% subscription extension✅ twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
0.61%
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貝格先生🐢
09-03
US Capital Sentiment Update: Slight Return of US Capital 🌡 Following last week's update on US capital sentiment (quoted below), it was mentioned that "US capital sentiment is relatively low, but still suppressed by divergences." Now, US capital sentiment has indeed begun to rebound somewhat from its lows. Interestingly, starting on August 29th (Friday), we entered a three-day holiday, and the US capital curve also rebounded during these three days. 👀 Combining my analysis of the STH-RP from the day before yesterday (x.com/market_beggar/status/196...…），), after the price stuck at the STH-RP for three days, it now appears to be stabilizing and rebounding. And in yesterday's post (x.com/market_beggar/status/196...…），), I also mentioned that BTC had formed a bullish stop-hunt pattern at a small scale. As a result, after the US stock market opened last night, BTC There has been a period of growth. But even with the above signs, I personally still have no plans to go long in the short term. I detailed the reasons in yesterday's post; interested parties can refer to it. As for the US capital sentiment curve itself, I'm not sure how high it can rebound at this point. After all, this rebound in sentiment isn't as forward-looking as our previous "divergence application" (see the end of the article for details). So, I plan to continue holding long-term short positions. If a significant rebound does occur, it's out of my reach, so I'm not afraid of missing out. Finally, I'm personally keeping an eye on Friday's unemployment rate and NFP figures. After all, the market is still very sensitive to interest rate cut expectations. And Friday's data is indeed one of the factors most likely to shake those expectations in the short term. ‼️ If any other significant signals emerge, I'll report back as soon as possible. 🫡 // 📚 Related Reading Resources Introduction to the Principles of the US Capital Sentiment Curve & Analysis Methods of Divergence Signals x.com/market_beggar/status/192...… Critical Week: Huge Volume Realized Profit returns, and the STH-RP defense begins. x.com/market_beggar/status/196...…
BTC
0.61%
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貝格先生🐢
09-02
BTC Technical Update: Still No Plans for Swing Longs 📊 It’s been about half a month since my last BTC chart update (see quoted tweet below), so here’s a quick rundown of my current technical bias on BTC. As I mentioned yesterday (x.com/market_beggar/status/196...…), maybe due to the US stock market’s 3-day break, even though BTC is sitting right at the STH-RP level, it just refuses to make a move. From a technical perspective, BTC has just printed a small Stop Hunt structure on the lower timeframes. Normally, that’s enough to trigger a local trend reversal and spark a bounce. But as marked in red on the chart, the low of this recent Stop Hunt is almost identical to the July 5th low. OGs know that these equal highs/lows are classic liquidity magnets—price tends to get attracted back to these zones. Bottom line: While there’s definitely a chance of a short-term bounce, the presence of these liquidity clusters means I still don’t have any plans to swing long here. Also, someone asked yesterday if I have any upcoming support levels in mind❓ Here’s my consolidated answer: 1️⃣ Macro bias is bearish. Waiting for a clear move at STH-RP—expecting a decision this week. 2️⃣ As I said yesterday, if we’re below STH-RP, I have zero plans for swing longs. 3️⃣ If we break down, from a swing perspective, I’m watching: - Around 103~104K - 88.9K - Any downward Stop Hunt into a liquidity pocket But I almost never set limit orders, so these are just rough zones. I only start monitoring conditions (strong taker activity, improvement in maker side, etc.) once price actually gets there. Specific levels don’t matter as much—planning > predicting. For a detailed example, check my recent ETH swing trading thread: 📖 Full thread as proof: How I perfectly predicted two ETH surges using liquidity x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… US stocks open tonight—maybe we’ll finally get some clear direction 👀 // 📚 More reading: On-chain data x TA post-mortem x.com/market_beggar/status/187...… Q&A: My two contract swing entry methods x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Analyzing the TA strategy of a “4 months 700x” legendary trader x.com/market_beggar/status/194...… Why I never trade breakouts: the whale’s liquidity trap x.com/market_beggar/status/190...… In-depth Maker strength methodology (ETH example) x.com/market_beggar/status/195...… twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
0.61%
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貝格先生🐢
09-01
Key Week Ahead: Massive Realized Profit Returns, STH-RP Defense Battle Begins ⚔️ Following my last update on Realized Profit (see quoted tweet below), on 8/29—just three days ago—BTC touched the STH-RP, and we saw the fourth major spike in Realized Profit since 74K‼️ Every time we see a surge like this, it signals significant energy drain from the market—and this time is no exception. What’s interesting is: 8/29 was a Friday, the day BTC first tapped STH-RP, and then we went straight into the weekend’s dead zone. Price action basically hit pause, and BTC stuck right above STH-RP—a rare sight. Historically, price doesn’t linger around STH-RP for long: ➡️ Either STH-RP proves to be solid support, price bounces and heads higher, ➡️ Or it breaks down, and we enter a more painful period. Today kicks off a new week and the first day of September. Personally, I don’t think it’ll take long for the market to show its hand. The smoke is rising, the war drums are beating—the battle to defend STH-RP is about to begin... 🗡 // Some of my personal bias: Given all the recent top signals, including: ➡️ BTC’s new high was a fakeout—I openly posted my bearish stance (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…) ➡️ Triple RUP divergence & massive Realized Profit spike (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…) ➡️ US capital sentiment still looking weak (x.com/market_beggar/status/196...…) Unless we get some major bullish catalyst soon, I think the odds of STH-RP breaking down are higher... 📉 Just my two sats for reference. Trading-wise: 🔸 As I said in my last US capital update, I have no swing trade plans short-term or mid-term. 🔸 If price is below STH-RP, I’m not going long on any swings. 🔸 Still holding my long-term short from 118K avg entry, 1.11x leverage. (Last position update: x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…) // 📝 Notes for new followers: 1️⃣ I’m aiming to catch BTC’s macro top this cycle, not just a local top. 2️⃣ I run two main trading systems: a cycle spot system and a swing contract system. 3️⃣ The swing system is always running; my “top hunting” series is about spot exit/short strategies. 4️⃣ I closed out spot around 103K avg at the start of the year, and have been farming funding ever since. 5️⃣ I’m not a perma-bear—I went full long on US stocks on 4/9 (x.com/market_beggar/status/190...…), but I do believe BTC is nearing the top. // 📚 Related reads: Realized Profit intro & analysis: x.com/market_beggar/status/186...… What massive Realized Profit means: x.com/market_beggar/status/188...… STH-RP lifeline explained: x.com/market_beggar/status/188...… twitter.com/market_beggar/stat...
BTC
0.61%
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