Key Week Ahead: Massive Realized Profit Surges Again, STH-RP Defense Battle Kicks Off ⚔️ Following up on my last update about Realized Profit (see quoted thread below) — just three days ago on 8/29, when BTC tapped the STH-RP level, we saw the fourth huge spike in Realized Profit since the 74K top‼️ Every time we get such a massive spike, it drains a ton of energy from the market, and this time is no exception. What’s interesting: On 8/29, when BTC first touched STH-RP, it was a Friday. Then we went straight into the weekend dead zone, with the market basically on pause and BTC just hovering above STH-RP — something we rarely see. Historically, price doesn’t linger at the STH-RP level for long: ➡️ Either STH-RP holds as support, we get a bounce and push higher, ➡️ Or it breaks down, leading to a more painful stretch. Now as we step into a new week — and the first day of September — I don’t think we’ll have to wait long for the market to show its hand. The smoke’s rising, the war drums are beating, and the battle for STH-RP is about to begin... 🗡 // Some personal bias for context: Probability-wise, taking into account all the recent top signals, including: ➡️ BTC’s failed breakout to a new high (I openly called for a top: x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…) ➡️ Triple RUP bearish divergence & massive Realized Profit (x.com/market_beggar/status/195...…) ➡️ Continued lackluster US capital flows (x.com/market_beggar/status/196...…) Unless we get some major bullish catalyst soon, I personally think the odds favor STH-RP getting broken... 📉 Again, just my own view for reference. Trading-wise: 🔸 As mentioned in my last US capital update, I have no swing trade plans in the short/mid-term 🔸 If price is below STH-RP, I’m not looking to long swing positions 🔸 Still holding my macro short from avg. 118K with 1.11x leverage (Last position update: x.com/market_beggar/status/194...…) // 📝 Quick notes for new followers: 1️⃣ I’m aiming to catch the macro top for BTC this cycle, not just a local one 2️⃣ I run two main trading systems: a cyclical spot system and a swing contract system 3️⃣ The swing system is always running; the “Top Hunter” series is focused on spot exit/short strategies 4️⃣ I closed out spot around 103K avg at the start of the year and have been earning funding in BTC terms since 5️⃣ I’m not a permabear — I was all-in US stocks on 4/9 (x.com/market_beggar/status/190...…), but I do think BTC is near a major top // 📚 Resources Intro to Realized Profit & analysis methods: x.com/market_beggar/status/186...… What massive Realized Profit means: x.com/market_beggar/status/188...… The significance of the STH-RP lifeline: x.com/market_beggar/status/188...…