Nick Timiraos

Nick Timiraos

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Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal • Author, "Trillion Dollar Triage”

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NEW: Trump asked a group of lawmakers if he should fire Jerome Powell – and people in room voiced approval, sources told @CBSNews. Several said Trump indicated he will do it. Trump has been socializing the possibility of a for-cause firing, but White House has not yet formally built a legal predicate. Some members of House Financial Services Committee were planning to meet with Powell tonight, per sources. Some Congress members want to reinforce the independence of his role. via @elliskkim @CHueyBurns and me cbsnews.com/news/trump-asked-g...…

On making Bessent his Fed chair, Trump says the Treasury secretary "is an option" but he's not the top option "because I like the job he's doing." "I do like the job he's done. So, in that sense, probably it's not that much of an option."

NEW: Trump tells me at Joint Base Andrews that he may not end up picking Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as his next Fed chair because he thinks he’s doing a great job at his current role. Trump said he would prefer not to move Bessent out of Treasury because of how much he

Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan: "My base case is that we'll need to keep interest rates modestly restrictive for some time" But "it's also possible that some combination of softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for lower rates fairly soon."

UBS: Seasonal adjustment flattered the June core CPI reading. Excluding the pandemic-era years (2020-22) from the seasonal adjustment calculations, we estimate that the seasonally-adjusted monthly core CPI change would have been around 9bp higher than what was published today.

There could be a choose-your-own narrative quality to today's CPI report. Core prices rose 0.23%, which just happens to be the median MoM rise in core prices over the previous 12 months (meaning six months were above and six months were below). This is ever so slightly on the soft side of what was expected by some forecasters, but the bottom line is that most of those forecasters expect more meaningful tariff effects in July and August ... and goods prices were firmer in June. If you think the worst of the tariff-driven price hikes is still ahead, then this report doesn't change your underlying view. And if you thought inflation was going to take longer to pass through and pack less punch because companies are trying to preserve market share in an economy with less demand, this report doesn't change that view, either. See you on August 12 for the July CPI wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-mar...… twitter.com/NickTimiraos/statu...

Autor and Hanson: "Policymakers are spending far too much time looking backward, fighting the last war. They should be spending much more time examining what’s emerging as a new China Shock. Spoiler alert: This one could be far worse."

Austan Goolsbee says tariff re-escalation would complicate decisions around cuts: "The more we keep adding things to the mix that make it hard to figure out, ‘Are prices going to be rising or not?’ The more it’s just throwing more dirt back in the air."

Philly Fed: In the first quarter, the share of credit card balances and accounts 30, 60, and 90-days past due declined on an annual basis for the first time since Q4 2021

It's a holiday week, so insert all requisite caveats about leaning on one week of data, etc. But jobless claims last week don't point to any signs of an imminent increase in layoffs, while continuing claims continue to suggest it is taking folks a bit longer to find new jobs.

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