There could be a choose-your-own narrative quality to today's CPI report. Core prices rose 0.23%, which just happens to be the median MoM rise in core prices over the previous 12 months (meaning six months were above and six months were below). This is ever so slightly on the soft side of what was expected by some forecasters, but the bottom line is that most of those forecasters expect more meaningful tariff effects in July and August ... and goods prices were firmer in June. If you think the worst of the tariff-driven price hikes is still ahead, then this report doesn't change your underlying view. And if you thought inflation was going to take longer to pass through and pack less punch because companies are trying to preserve market share in an economy with less demand, this report doesn't change that view, either. See you on August 12 for the July CPI wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-mar...…

Nick Timiraos
@NickTimiraos
CPI is close to consensus. Not as mild as May.
Core prices rose 0.23% in June. 12-month inflation was 2.9%
Headline prices rose 0.29%. 12-month inflation was 2.6%.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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