UBS: Seasonal adjustment flattered the June core CPI reading.
Excluding the pandemic-era years (2020-22) from the seasonal adjustment calculations, we estimate that the seasonally-adjusted monthly core CPI change would have been around 9bp higher than what was published today.
UBS: "The not-seasonally-adjusted core CPI increase in June was 14bp above June last year. This is the largest month-over-12-months-prior difference since core CPI inflation peaked in September 2022, and consequently 12-month core inflation saw its largest set up in 33 months."
And from @fcastofthemonth: "The big news in my view is that core goods prices excluding autos jumped by 0.55% in June, the largest monthly increase since November 2021."
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