The Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) markets are showing clear signals that they may enter a downward phase in August. According to data from the derivatives analysis platform Derive.xyz, investors are leaning towards put options in the options market, preparing more for downside risks rather than potential upside.
For Bitcoin, the put option open interest for the August 29th expiration is five times more than call options. Particularly, volumes purchased at the $95,000 strike price account for about 50%, with active trading between $80,000 and $100,000. Deribit's data shows a similar pattern, with put options at the $95,000 and $110,000 price ranges recording over $2 billion in open interest. This suggests that a significant number of investors believe Bitcoin could fall below double digits this month.
The 'option skew' indicator, which measures investment sentiment, also reflects a downward trend. This metric, showing the relative position of call prices compared to put prices, has flipped from +2% to -2% over the past month. Statistically, the probability of Bitcoin recovering to the $100,000 level by the end of August is only 18%.
Ethereum's market sentiment is also somewhat subdued. During the same period, put option trading volume was about 10% higher than call options, with key target strike prices at $3,200, $3,000, and $2,200. The option skew dropped from +6% to -2%, indicating spreading risk defense sentiment.
In terms of volatility, Ethereum shows a more unstable trend. ETH's one-month expected volatility is 65%, significantly higher than Bitcoin's 35%. Some traders estimate a 25% chance of Ethereum falling below $3,000 in August, while considering the recent rebound, the probability of closing above $4,000 has increased to 30%.
While these market trends trigger short-term bearish caution, some experts advise that options market betting can sometimes reflect excessive fear or greed, and the pessimistic options market flow may not necessarily translate into actual selling pressure.
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