Bitcoin's miner reserves steadily increased from July 2 to July 22. This reflects accumulation as the coin reached a new all-time high of $122,054 on July 14.
At the time, miners showed confidence in the coin's upward momentum and held rewards expecting higher prices. However, BTC has struggled to maintain its upward momentum since that peak. As a result, miners began selling their reserves to realize profits. This change introduces a new headwind for BTC in August.
Bitcoin's Upward Trend Slows... Miners Shift from Holding to Selling
As BTC's value began rising at the beginning of the month, Bitcoin network miners also strengthened their accumulation. This is reflected in the increase in the coin's miner reserves.
According to CryptoQuant data, this indicator is observed using a 7-day moving average (7-day SMA), rising 0.05% from July 1 to July 22 to approximately 1,808,000 coins.
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The miner reserves indicator tracks the total BTC held in wallets associated with miners. An increase in reserves indicates that miners are holding onto coins rather than selling, reflecting an upward trend or expectation of continued price appreciation.
However, after BTC's surge on July 14 and the subsequent correction phase, the upward momentum among miners began to weaken. According to CryptoQuant, miner reserves have shown a downward trend since July 22, indicating increased profit-taking or reduced confidence in BTC's short-term price outlook.
Since miners control a significant portion of BTC's newly issued supply, changes in their behavior can impact price direction. Such a decrease in miner reserves could exacerbate selling pressure and increase the risk of a BTC price correction in August.
Institutional Inflows May Offset Miner Selling Pressure in August
In an exclusive interview with Zignaly's co-founder and CFO Abdul Rafay Gadit, he suggested that the recent increase in miner reserves in early July is "more likely a short-term pause rather than the start of aggressive accumulation".
"The increase in miner reserves suggests they chose to hold BTC while waiting for stronger market signals or more favorable price conditions. This does not yet reflect broad accumulation, but rather appears to be a strategic slowdown of sales. Bitcoin's price could gradually resume accumulation if it stabilizes or shows an upward trend, but currently, it is more focused on capital preservation than bold bets," he told BeInCrypto.
When asked about the relative influence and expectations of miner activity and institutional demand on BTC's current price performance, Gadit noted:
"Institutional demand is the true foundation of Bitcoin's current price structure. The flows from ETFs managed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark are creating consistent structural bids that more effectively support price levels."
He added:
"While miner behavior plays a role in mitigating short-term supply pressure, the true force of market direction is shaped by institutional capital, broader participation, and expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment. The reality is that miners are no longer setting the pace, and institutions are doing so."
As institutional demand for BTC increasesโreflected in steady inflows to BTC-based ETFsโpotential selling pressure from miners could be effectively offset and may help stabilize the coin's price in August.
According to SoSoValue data, BTC ETFs have recorded net inflows of $237 million so far this week, despite the coin mostly trading sideways.
Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow. Source: SoSoValue
This confirms Gadit's view that institutional capital, rather than miner activity, is the primary force supporting BTC's price and could help stabilize it in the coming month.
Will Bitcoin Break Out of Its Sideways Trend?
At the time of reporting, BTC is trading at $117,826, remaining between a support line at $116,952 and a resistance line at $120,811. With increasing institutional demand and improved overall market sentiment, the coin could break above the $120,811 resistance and move to new all-time highs in August.
Meanwhile, if downward pressure increases, the coin could fall below $116,925 and drop to $114,354.
