After BTC broke through $120,000 in July, on-chain data revealed notable profit-taking activities by whales.
In this context, closely monitoring whale behavior and capital flows to major platforms is crucial in determining the market's next move.
Market in Short-Term Distribution Phase
Following the recent market adjustment, Bitcoin is trading in the $115,000 area. According to Cryptoquant, Bitcoin is entering the "third major profit-taking wave" of this bull cycle.
Cryptoquant noted that the main profit-takers are new whales who recently accumulated Bitcoin and are currently realizing significant profits.
Additionally, the market continues to see early whales from the Satoshi era selling. The X account ai_9684xtpa confirmed that several old wallets created during Bitcoin's early days are moving and selling BTC.
While these wallets are small relative to total circulation, they often attract attention due to their potential psychological market impact.
Long-Term Market Sentiment Positive
Alongside the short-term profit-taking wave, the market continues to show notable bullish indicators. According to glassnode data, Bitcoin's current price is above the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, which is crucial in forming a strong support base if the market retreats.
Meanwhile, Coin Bureau cited Bernstein's analysis, suggesting the cryptocurrency bull market is still in its early stages. This perspective particularly strengthens long-term investor confidence as institutional capital flows into the market through platforms like ETFs.
Cryptoquant also noted that new investor dominance is increasing but has room to grow before reaching extreme levels. This indicates that the current cycle is not just revolving around veteran holders but attracting many new participants.
Considering the strong price surge in recent months, some analysts warn that Bitcoin might need a correction period.
"July signaled a transition from trend to correction. High speculation and profit-taking are dampening momentum, suggesting BTC may need a reset or consolidation before the next breakout attempt." – Willy Woo, Analyst
Additionally, on-chain sentiment data showed that whales have accumulated approximately 0.9% of Bitcoin's total circulation over the past four months. This suggests that long-term confidence remains robust despite technical pullbacks.
