In the Bitcoin (BTC) market, the volume of long-term holders and early miners is gradually decreasing, while institutional investors are filling this space. Recently, the cryptocurrency financial company Swan defined this as the 'largest holder replacement in Bitcoin history', analyzing that the market structure is fundamentally changing.
According to Swan, despite approximately 80,000 Bitcoins—equivalent to $9 billion (about 12.51 trillion won)—being sold in large quantities last week, the BTC price maintained its resilience without significant shock. Particularly, even as 'whales' who have held since the Satoshi era sold some of their holdings, the market absorbed this smoothly, demonstrating a mature ecosystem.
Experts view the current asset flow not simply as liquidity, but as a structural transformation akin to a generational shift. They noted that the 'profit-taking' movements of early holders, which often appeared in past bull markets, have now been replaced by long-term institutional fund inflows. The process of exchanges, listed financial products, and corporate investors establishing themselves as new market participants is fully underway.
Swan emphasized that "existing participants are leaving the market while confident global funds are flowing in", which will further solidify the foundation for the next price rally. Their diagnosis suggests that gradual fund inflows and demand accumulation, rather than past bubble-like volatility, could be the primary driver of price increases.
According to blockchain data analysis company glassnode, long-term investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days still retain 53% of the total supply. This suggests the possibility of additional selling while also implying the need for continuous absorption demand to drive price increases.
After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Bitcoin temporarily dropped 2% to around $116,000, but quickly recovered to $118,300 during Asian trading hours. This is interpreted as a signal that BTC is entering a stable adjustment phase at a specific price range.
Swan warned, "If you're still waiting for a surge like in 2021, you might miss the next tenfold rally", predicting that the next bull market will be characterized by capital slowly entering, condensing, and becoming long-term. Standing at the end of this holder replacement, they are sending a message that now is the time to re-enter the market for those looking at Bitcoin's long-term growth potential.
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