As Ethereum (ETH) celebrates its 10th anniversary, the combination of a quiet derivatives market and strong institutional demand is raising expectations for a long-term rally. Recently, ETH has been trading around $3,800 (approximately 52.82 million won), which is still about 24% lower than its all-time high, but experts believe a full-scale upward trend may be imminent.
An analyst from CryptoQuant named 'CoinCare' reported that the funding rate in the Ethereum futures market remains at a low level, signaling a stable upward trend without overheating. He emphasized, "The current funding rate is very similar to the level before the October 2023 rally" and "A correction after a short-term surge is natural, and a full-scale upward market is likely to follow."
Buying sentiment supporting this outlook is also detected from institutional investors. In just two days, 220,000 ETH was purchased, equivalent to approximately $850 million (about 1.1815 trillion won). These 'whale investors' now hold 23.5% of Ethereum's total circulating supply, marking an all-time high and creating upward price pressure through reduced market liquidity.
Additionally, demand for ETH is confirmed in the ETF market. The spot-based Ethereum ETF has seen an inflow of about $5 billion (approximately 6.95 trillion won) in 17 days, with strong continuous capital inflows through regulated investment instruments. Moreover, exchange balances have decreased by over 1 million ETH in the past month, reaching a 10-year low of 19 million ETH, suggesting significantly limited potential selling volume in the near future.
Technical market indicators also show signs of recovery. ETH price has risen 1.7% in the last 24 hours and 7.9% over a week, with a 30-day increase of 57%. It is currently trading in a narrow range between $3,708 and $3,874 (approximately 51.35-53.83 million won), with $4,000 (about 55.60 million won) acting as the next resistance level. Conversely, $3,500 (about 48.65 million won) is analyzed as an important short-term support line.
Market analyst Ali Martinez stated, "Breaking through $4,100 (about 56.99 million won) would be considered a true breakout zone and could be a psychological turning point." However, some technical analyses also suggest a potential correction down to $3,300 (about 45.87 million won), given that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached an overbought level.
Nevertheless, if the funding rate-based upward logic becomes a reality and institutional demand continues as analyzed by CoinCare, this upward trend could be the prelude to a long-term rally aimed at setting new all-time highs, rather than just a technical rebound.
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