According to Followin, on September 4th, the market is focused on the US ADP employment data for August, due to be released tonight at 8:15 PM. The previous reading was +104,000. The median forecast in a Reuters poll was +65,000, with consensus estimates ranging from +35,000 to +105,000, indicating a significant slowdown in employment growth. A significantly lower-than-expected reading would strengthen market bets on a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but would also expose the risk of a weakening US economic fundamentals.
In the crypto market, the Bitcoin (BTC) liquidation heat map shows short-term support in the 107,000–107,200 range, with upward pressure concentrated between 113,000 and 113,500. The price has recently fluctuated around 111,000. If the ADP data is weak, BTC may be supported by expectations of a rate cut, but this will also increase volatility risks.
Bitunix analysts suggest: "ADP data will be a key signal for the US labor market this week. A weaker-than-expected reading may be bullish for risk assets in the short term, but recession fears will likely weigh on the long term." Market sentiment is currently leaning towards a "bad news is good news" model, but caution is advised against a significantly negative reading, as it could trigger panic. Bitcoin will focus on whether the $107,000 support level holds in the short term. A break above $113,500 would open the door to higher ranges.
