President Trump’s absence from public view over the weekend led to widespread rumors of his death. Although he remains healthy, the speculation has fueled more than $1.6 billion in prediction markets.
These markets seem particularly worrisome, especially since Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi. New controversial prediction markets could launch in the future, especially if they prove to be just as profitable.
Rumors of Trump's death spread
In today's hyper-charged information environment, entirely fictional events can quickly spiral out of control. For example, rumors of President Trump's imminent death took off this weekend.
It's a major holiday in the US, and Trump has made few public appearances, leading to widespread and unfounded claims that he is dying:
Now that Labor Day has passed and President Trump is still alive, he has addressed the rumors in an unrelated statement, calling their spread “a little crazy.”
These rumors, however, have led to an interesting phenomenon: more than $1.6 million in prediction market bets on whether Trump will leave office in 2025.
Kalshi opened its Trump prediction market on Saturday, attracting more than $700,000, while Polymarket bets began last night.
In other words, more than half of these players are betting on a market that would pay out outright if Trump were to die. Kalshi, at least, only accepts resignations or other non-fatal forms of leaving office.
A notable market development
This flurry of trading activity shows intense interest in the topic, even if players have no more than a 13% belief that Trump's death or removal from office will actually happen.
Some media outlets have speculated that he could announce his resignation today (which would also satisfy the terms of the bet), but that's not the main concern.
Importantly, however, Donald Trump Jr. had an advisory Vai in both companies that offered bets on his father's likelihood of passing.
That seems like a moral minefield for a number of reasons, not least of which is that Trump is the current US President. Yet these markets have continued to grow unhindered.
Some journalists have speculated that these prediction markets are trying to push the limits of law enforcement regarding Web3 under Trump .
Polymarket is ultimately banned in the US in theory , but this has been largely unenforced. Kalshi has extensive ties to Brian Quintenz , who isexpected to become the sole Commissioner of the CFTC if confirmed.
In other words, the Trump death rumor bet had a lot of potential implications. On the one hand, it was a fun and short-lived meme that fell apart as soon as the president held a press conference.
On the other hand, it's a worrying development. Given this precedent, there could be more unhealthy prediction markets in the future.
