After breaking through $3,000 (approximately 41.7 million won), Ethereum (ETH) showed a sharp increase, approaching its short-term peak of $3,800 (approximately 52.82 million won). However, analysis suggests that the upward trend has temporarily paused as overheating signals were detected. The main cause of the short-term rally was strong market momentum and breaking through key resistance levels. Currently, concerns about short-term adjustments are growing, requiring investors' caution.
According to technical analysis, ETH continues to maintain a strong trend above the $2,500 (approximately 34.75 million won) range of 100-day and 200-day moving averages. After breaking through $2,800 (approximately 38.84 million won) recently and forming $3,660 (approximately 50.87 million won), it continues its upward trend, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exceeded 78, indicating an overbought state. Consequently, buying fatigue is accumulating, and selling pressure is being observed.
The current key price level is $3,300 (approximately 45.87 million won), which can confirm support if broken upward. If ETH maintains this range without breaking out, the medium to long-term upward structure can be maintained. Conversely, if it reverses downward near $3,800 (approximately 52.82 million won), a correction to the $3,300 level may be inevitable. The upside target is expected to be $4,107 (approximately 57.06 million won).
On the 4-hour chart, a clear downward divergence between ETH price and RSI is evident. While the price has been making higher highs targeting $3,800, the RSI is gradually decreasing, showing weakening buying momentum. The current price is drawing a tight box between $3,500-$3,800 (approximately 48.45-52.82 million won), and if it breaks below $3,500, there is a possibility of a pullback to the $3,200 (approximately 44.48 million won) level.
The Funding Rate, one of the on-chain indicators, also suggests an upward trend. The funding cost for long positions is increasing on most major exchanges, reflecting an optimistic market sentiment. However, the current level cannot be considered overheated, and there is still room compared to the extreme funding rates observed at the peak of the previous upward cycle.
In summary, Ethereum remains in an upward trend, but a short-term downward adjustment response is required. The ability to break through $3,800 will likely determine the immediate direction, and investors should maintain a cautious observational stance rather than expanding excessive leverage positions.
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