From wallet to super app: Coinbase launches Base App, integrating new entry points for on-chain social and payment

Coinbase Will Upgrade Coinbase Wallet to a New Base App, Integrating Social Media, Real-Time Trading, AI Assistant, and USDC Payment Features to Maximize Usage Scenarios. This New Product Not Only Represents a New Chapter for Coinbase's Own L2 Ecosystem Base, But Also Symbolizes the Wave of "Super App-ization" of On-Chain Services. At Coinbase's Latest "A New Day One" Broadcast, the Company Announced the Official Renaming of Coinbase Wallet to "Base App", Positioning It as a "Super App (Everything App)" and Redesigning the User's On-Chain Experience. Today, Base App Is No Longer Just a Simple Crypto Wallet, But a Comprehensive Portal Integrating Social Posts, Mini Apps, Communication Chat, Real-Time Trading, and Payment Functions. This Is Not Just a Brand Rebranding in Product Name, But Coinbase's Strategy to Make Web3 More Accessible. From the Base L2 Underlying Technology, Base Build Developer Tools, to the Mass-Oriented Application Base App, It's Clear That Coinbase Is Ready to Make Its Move. Base App Will Begin Rolling Out to Waitlisted Users on July 16, Powered by the Farcaster Protocol for Community Dynamics, Allowing Creators to Tokenize Posts via Zora and Earn Directly from Tipping and Interactions, with Additional Weekly Rewards for Highly Interactive Posts. Moreover, Users Can Instantly View Friends' Transaction Records and Complete Coin Exchanges and Trades Directly on the Screen Without Switching. Base App Also Embeds Hundreds of Mini Apps, Including Blockchain Games, Prediction Markets, and NFT Platforms. For Private Communication, Base App Includes Encrypted XMTP Chat Service, Enabling Users to Send Messages, Share Images, Trade with AI Agents, and Send Funds, Further Creating an "On-Chain iMessage" Experience. Additionally, Coinbase Launched Base Pay Service Using NFC Technology, Allowing USDC Checkout at Shopify Stores Without Contact. U.S. Users Can Expect 1% Cash Back Later This Year, and Even Idle Funds Can Earn 4.1% Annual Yield. However, These Rewards and Cashback Mechanisms Currently Do Not Support EU and Canadian Regions. Coinbase Emphasizes That This Revision Aims to Make On-Chain Operations as Simple and Intuitive as Opening an App, Lowering Entry and Learning Barriers, Allowing Creators, Investors, and Daily Users to Post, Trade, and Earn on the Platform. To Attract More Developers, Coinbase Announced "Sign in with Base" Function, Encouraging Third-Party Integration with Base App Login System to Further Expand Its Ecosystem. In Technical Integration, Coinbase Recruited Core Team from Decentralized Derivatives Protocol Opyn to Expand On-Chain Derivatives Market and Collaborated with Perplexity AI to Integrate Real-Time Crypto Market Data and Intelligent Search Services. These Strategies Symbolize Coinbase's Gradual Shift from a Trading Platform, Attempting to Become the Primary Entrance for Web3 Users, Helping On-Chain Life Escape Obscure Terminology and Accelerate Towards Mainstream Scenarios. Although the Crypto Prediction Platform Polymarket Is Considered a Significant "Landing Application", a Recently Viral Post on X (Formerly Twitter) Accused the Platform of Being Manipulated by a UMA Whale, with Two Markets Involving Millions of Dollars in Bets Becoming the Core Controversy, and Users Questioning Polymarket's True Decentralization.

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Prediction Market Suspected of "Manipulation," Two Major Betting Topics Become Controversial Focal Points

A user @tatethebrand's long post revealed a series of controversies surrounding Polymarket. The post included screenshots of two popular betting topics: whether the Iran Fordow nuclear facility would be destroyed before June 2025, and whether Ukrainian President Zelensky would wear a suit before July. These two markets attracted approximately $23.5 million and $15.4 million in betting amounts, respectively, but the outcomes sparked widespread anger.

In the Fordow bet, the market once predicted a 99% probability of "destruction" before the end of June. According to Al Jazeera and Wikipedia updates, US B-2 bombers struck the facility on June 15, but the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated the next day that "no significant damage was observed" as Iran had evacuated the facility's personnel in advance. The IAEA has not yet made an official determination, leaving the market unresolved and raising questions about speculation and information asymmetry.

Regarding the bet on Zelensky wearing a suit, despite Kyiv Post publishing a photo of him in a suit on June 25, Polymarket ultimately judged the result as "No". This decision was determined by a UMA community vote, with most UMA token holders choosing "No", leading many users to question whether the platform was "taking sides" in the face of facts.

Centralized Control? UMA Whale Accused of Manipulating Market Direction

@tatethebrand's post alleges that while Polymarket appears decentralized, it is actually dominated by a few major UMA token holders. These "whales" can influence market outcomes through the voting mechanism, creating a situation similar to a monopoly. A 2025 arXiv research paper also pointed out that governance is generally concentrated among a few individuals in multiple DeFi protocols, questioning the substantive meaning of decentralization.

Additionally, a Mitrade report from March this year exposed a $7 million manipulation scandal, suggesting that some Polymarket verifiers influence market direction by setting rules and coordinating votes, although the report has not yet undergone academic review.

The post even likens UMA's control structure to a "monopoly group", arguing that a few people control voting power, creating a superficially decentralized but actually centralized governance. While there is no clear evidence of organized manipulation by UMA, the concentration of token holdings is concerning, and users are beginning to question the platform's fairness.

What is the Relationship Between Polymarket and UMA?

Polymarket is a decentralized blockchain prediction market platform whose prediction results heavily rely on the UMA protocol as a core data source and arbitration mechanism. Specifically, when settling markets, Polymarket submits event results to UMA's optimistic oracle, where UMA token holders vote and arbitrate to ultimately determine the settlement of bets. This design makes result verification decentralized and transparent, but has also sparked controversies due to large token holders or minorities exploiting UMA oracle governance. As Polymarket's users and transaction volume increase, the demand for UMA oracles grows simultaneously, forming a close and interdependent technological and economic relationship.

User Anger Spreads, Competing Platforms Seize the Opportunity

Amid the escalating controversy, Polymarket is conducting a fundraising round led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, with a target valuation of $1 billion.

Divisions have emerged within the crypto community, with notable trader defipolice stating that Polymarket is no longer a "platform for predicting truth" but a "scripted bet". Many users claim to have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in the Zelensky bet.

(Targeting Polymarket! Paradigm Leads Kalshi's $185 Million Financing, Valuation Approaching $2 Billion)

Uncertain Future, Polymarket's Trust Crisis Awaits Resolution

As the Fordow bet's deadline passes and the IAEA has not yet provided a clear answer, market focus will shift to UMA and Polymarket's response mechanisms. Although blockchain tools like Etherscan can track voting and token-holding addresses, interpreting the data still requires professional analysis.

Currently, Polymarket has not publicly responded, but UMA's co-founders have hinted at adjusting related decision-making processes to reduce centralization risks.

For users, this incident serves as a warning: before participating in crypto prediction markets, one must understand the platform's governance structure and risk distribution. Whether it is truly decentralized has become the core concern for users.