Chainfeeds Briefing:
Bitcoin has broken through two dense accumulation zones, and this structural breakthrough typically signals a strong and sustained upward movement. The Chinese version was compiled and published by Jinse Finance.
Article Source:
https://www.jinse.cn/blockchain/3717477.html
Article Author:
glassnode
Perspective:
glassnode: Bitcoin recently successfully broke through its historical high point, with prices reaching up to $122,600, driving all token holders back to a profitable state. This rise marks the price officially breaking out of the previous $100,000-$110,000 oscillation range and re-entering a price discovery phase. On-chain data indicates significant fund accumulation in two key price intervals of $93,000-$97,000 and $104,000-$110,000. Breaking through these intervals suggests strong market support, and these areas may become key support zones in future pullbacks. Simultaneously, the cost basis model shows Bitcoin's price has exceeded the 95th percentile, meaning most chips are in a profitable range. If this structure continues, it could spread profit-taking sentiment and potentially alter market supply-demand distribution, leading to chip migration towards higher-cost regions and forming a more volatile market structure. As Bitcoin continues to rise, short-term holders' unrealized profits have significantly increased, with multiple on-chain indicators gradually entering the overheated zone. Currently, the profitable supply ratio of short-term holders is as high as 95%, far above the historical average of 88%, and the third time breaking this level since 2025. Another indicator - the relative unrealized profit rate of short-term holders - slightly retreated to 13.6% after touching the 15.4% warning line. Although the pullback has moderated market heat, historical experience suggests a lag between indicator warming and price top formation, indicating potential further upside in the short term. Notably, when a large number of short-term holder chips are profitable, they are likely to cash out, potentially weakening market momentum. Additionally, price trends during this period greatly impact investor sentiment, and market volatility reactions might amplify selling behavior, creating a feedback effect. From profitable trade volume percentage and realized profit-loss ratio indicators, on-chain data has signaled that the market might be approaching a short-term peak. After Bitcoin's price surged to $122,600, we observed the first large-scale profit-taking wave since late 2024, with the realized profit-loss ratio spiking to 39.8, far exceeding the historical overheated level of +2 standard deviations. Although the indicator has now fallen to 7.3 and remains in a high range, it shows a moderate decline compared to mid-bull market levels. The profitable trade volume percentage also indicates short-term holders are accelerating their cash-out pace. Following historical patterns, market liquidity demand will be gradually exhausted after multiple over-profit realizations, potentially triggering a structural pullback. While current technical formations support price further rising to around $130,000 (corresponding to +2 standard deviations above short-term holder cost basis), the market has entered a sensitive stage, and investors must closely monitor demand-side changes to determine if it's entering a post-cycle top zone.
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