Bitcoin developers have proposed a bold plan to protect the network from potential quantum computer attacks. The draft plan could freeze around 25% of the total Bitcoin supply if users do not upgrade.
This means approximately $593 billion in BTC value remains vulnerable to quantum attacks.
Bitcoin Developers' Bold Plan to Prepare for the Quantum Computing Era
The proposal titled "Post-Quantum Migration and Legacy Signature Termination", submitted on 07/14/2024 by notable contributors including Jameson Lopp.
It outlines a multi-stage strategy to convert Bitcoin to quantum-resistant cryptography and end legacy signatures like ECDSA and Schnorr.
In the plan, developers argue that quantum computers could break these cryptographic systems within five to ten years. Some suggest the Q-day could arrive as early as 2027.
If this occurs, any wallet that has publicly exposed its public key on the chain could be compromised. This includes wallets associated with Satoshi Nakamoto.
The plan introduces three main stages.
Stage A will prohibit new transactions sent to quantum-vulnerable addresses. This step will encourage users to migrate to post-quantum addresses (P2QRH).
Stage B is more aggressive. It will invalidate all transactions using old cryptography at a predetermined block height. This effectively means freezing funds in vulnerable wallets if not upgraded.
Stage C, still under research, may provide a recovery mechanism for users who miss the migration deadline. This will use zero-knowledge proof to verify wallet seed phrase control.
The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin is Real
According to the proposal, over 4.9 million BTC—valued at nearly $593 billion at the current price—are exposed due to old address formats. These formats include early formats like Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) and key reuse.
Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet, containing approximately 1 million BTC, would be among those affected if the proposal is adopted and no migration occurs.
The authors note that this plan creates a clear incentive for users and organizations to act. "Not upgrading, and you will certainly lose access to your funds," the draft clearly states.
The motivation is clear. If a quantum attacker gains access to exposed public keys, they could secretly steal coins and undermine network trust.
Some community members criticize the developers' proposalDevelopers warn that when such an attack appears on the chain, the damage could be irreversible.
They also cite recent advances in quantum algorithms and post-quantum cryptography, including NIST's approval of PQ signature schemes in 2024.
Hardware might still be slow, but algorithmic progress is narrowing the threat window.
Bitcoin has historically been slow in adopting upgrades. This proposal aims to accelerate the migration process by setting a five-year deadline and aligning stakeholders around a defined flag day.
Meanwhile, the proposal remains in draft form and will require broad community consensus to move forward.
However, this is the most serious and coordinated effort to date to prevent the quantum threat to Bitcoin.
If implemented, this would also be the first time in Bitcoin's history that unspent coins could be permanently invalidated for not meeting new security standards.
