Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a significant callback, directly falling below $117,000, with possibly three reasons: a Bitcoin "ancient whale" selling, rising long-term Japanese bond rates, and market risk aversion before CPI announcement. The combined factors caused Bitcoin to drop 3,000 points in one morning. Looking at US stock index futures, although there was a callback, the magnitude was not large, so the whale's selling is believed to be the main reason for yesterday's market decline.
VX：TZ7971
Looking at the bond market, yesterday not only Japan but global long-term government bonds suffered massive sell-offs, with long-term bond yields in the UK, France, and Germany rising across the board. If government bond yields continue to rise significantly, it will lead to global liquidity tightening, increase borrowing costs, and directly impact the risk asset market. Therefore, when the US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5% in the evening, US stocks and cryptocurrency markets both dropped rapidly.
The surge in government bond yields directly offset the impact of last night's CPI data. However, the CPI was not very optimistic either, with core CPI rising less than expected, but the number still increased, indicating inflation is warming up, though close to expected values. Therefore, US stocks and Bitcoin slightly rebounded in the early stage, but the upward momentum was not strong, and then was hit by the news of bond yields, hovering between $116,000 and $117,000. As long as it doesn't fall below $112,000, it is expected to oscillate between $116,000 and $120,000 this week.
Altcoin Front
US asset management company ProShares has again entered the cryptocurrency market, with two leveraged futures ETFs tracking the price trends of Solana (SOL) and XRP, officially listed on NYSE Arca on Tuesday.
According to the official announcement, these two new funds are "ProShares Ultra Solana ETF (SLON)" and "ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP)", both providing 2x leveraged returns. Unlike spot ETFs, these funds do not hold any SOL or XRP spot assets but invest in regulated futures contracts.
According to an open letter on Monday, these ETFs have been approved for listing by NYSE Arca and the SEC.
Although futures ETFs do not provide direct spot price exposure to investors, their smooth listing undoubtedly further confirms the increasing institutional acceptance of cryptocurrency derivatives, especially in the regulated futures market, which has become an important bridge for institutions to enter the cryptocurrency space.
Historically, futures ETFs have been viewed as key precursors to spot ETFs. The regulated futures market behind them helps regulatory agencies grasp market liquidity, pricing mechanisms, and investor protection indicators, serving as a reference for future spot ETF feasibility assessments.
Currently, asset management companies like VanEck and Bitwise have submitted spot ETF applications for SOL and XRP to the SEC but have not yet been approved. ProShares' early layout of futures products may likely become an important boost for subsequent spot ETF regulatory breakthroughs.
The US SEC may approve multiple Altcoin ETFs in the second half of 2025, with LTC, SOL, and XRP having a 95% approval probability, while DOGE, HBAR, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche are expected to have a 90% chance of approval. SUI has a 60% expected approval probability, and Tron/TRX and Pengu have a 50% chance.
Moreover, various "Altcoin" versions of micro-strategies are being established, and Altcoins will usher in an era of ETF and institutional bottom-buying.
PUMP's 12-minute public offering of $500 million demonstrates that when suitable opportunities arise, substantial liquidity is still willing to participate. Altcoins have not "died"; they just need the right narrative.
