KOL in-depth analysis: BTC, ETH, and the trend prediction of altcoins!

🔥 In-depth analysis: Bitcoin’s new high, whale selling, and the future of Ethereum and altcoins BTC broke through $120,000, setting a new record high, but then a whale address sold 80,000 BTC. So what will be the future trend of BTC? Where will ETH and altcoins go? This tweet summarizes the analysis of various viewpoints, including the interpretation of subsequent trends, targeted suggestions, etc., to provide everyone with a comprehensive and objective perspective. 👇 ⭐️ 1. Bitcoin price trend after breaking through $120,000 1/12, @Phyrex_Ni It is believed that although BTC has reached a new high, the price increase is not due to too much purchasing power, but mainly due to extremely low selling volume and liquidity, indicating that most investors regard it as a long-term asset. The net flow of BTC on exchanges shows that the amount of coins available for sale continues to decrease, and the demand for withdrawals is strong, resulting in high price stability. Unless there is a systemic risk, investors are not willing to sell. Next week's macro data (CPI, PPI, etc.) may cause short-term market fluctuations, and CPI data may reduce expectations for a rate cut in September in the short term. In addition, TD Cowen raised the target price of MSTR to $680 and predicted that Bitcoin may reach $155,000 by the end of the year. 2/12, @Murphychen888 The tweet pointed out that the current concern is whether the market will have enough capacity to absorb the large-scale distribution of BTC long-term holders (LTH). If so, it indicates a major uptrend; otherwise, the market will return to its original state. Currently, LTH is still in the accumulation period, buying and holding more Bitcoin, and there is no large amount of selling pressure. However, the slope of the supply curve is flattening ( The rate at which long-term holders accumulate Bitcoin is slowing), indicating that some people have sold at high levels and these sales are slowing the overall rate of accumulation. Murphychen believes that long-term BTC holders will eventually distribute on a large scale. He emphasized that there are no chips in the world that cannot be sold, only prices that do not meet expectations. When the price reaches the psychological target of investors, faith may give way to cashing out. 3/12, @CryptoPainter_X The latest analysis from BTC.com points out that the BTC spot premium is slowly recovering, indicating that this week will be a volatile market with a potential range of $113k to $123k. Although the spot premium of BTC fell after breaking through 123k and the futures position did not decrease, indicating that the Americans were shipping and the futures longs were taking over, it indicated that there might be a correction. He emphasized that the core logic is that the longs should tighten the stop loss instead of short, and before the trend structure is broken, only look at the correction and not the short. At present, the BTC spot premium is still negative, and the futures long positions have not been closed. From a technical point of view, the current price is supported at the lower edge of the left range. The sale of 80,000 BTC has led to a large number of short-term holders selling. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate in the range before the premium recovers or rises significantly, and it is suggested that if the CME gap cannot be quickly filled, it may cause a larger decline. 4/12, @ai_9684xtpa She holds a different view on the 80,000 BTC sell-off. She believes that for this "fossil hand"whale, the effects of a one-time sell-off and a long-term slow sell-off may be similar. If the German government had chosen to sell slowly over a long period of time, the price of the currency would have continued to fall under the continued negative impact, which would have provided institutions and retail investors with an opportunity to short short, ultimately resulting in the government's average selling price being significantly lower than the market price. Therefore, for this whale, it is simpler and more direct to smash it all at once. For ordinary investors, a direct deep correction after a new high may provide an entry point to capture market opportunities. This method of quickly releasing negative news may avoid the continuous consumption of market sentiment and prices by long-term declines. 5/12, @Cato_CryptoM It is pointed out that the current trend of BTC is not optimistic. The key support has moved up to around $116,900, which is also the current price hovering area. It is currently impossible to determine whether the callback is a three-wave relay or a deeper five-wave decline. Combined with the CPI data, it is relatively mild overall, temporarily belonging to the relaxation stage after the tension. BTC rebounded but failed to resist and continued to fall. Ignoring the 4-hour support, directly refer to the daily support around 113,000. 6/12, @10x_Research The latest report points out that Bitcoin's recent record highs are not driven by market speculation, but by deeper macroeconomic changes. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the sharp increase in US debt (such as the newly passed $5 trillion debt ceiling bill) and the upcoming Trump administration's crypto policy report, the role of Bitcoin is being redefined. Focus on the July 22 crypto policy report and the July 30 FOMC meeting. ⭐️ 2. Judgment on Ethereum’s future performance 7/12, @Alvin0617 This summarizes the views of the three giants in the crypto, Cathie Wood @CathieDWood, Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes and well-known trader Eugene @0xENAS, who are all optimistic about ETH. ETH has been receiving positive news recently, including record high ETF fund inflows (nearly $1 billion in weekly inflows), current ETF holdings of $130 billion, and institutions’ clear attitude of using ETH as a strategic reserve (such as SharpLinkGaming becoming the largest institution holding ETH). The Ethereum Foundation is also actively promoting ecological development. - Cathie Wood tweeted to highlight Ethereum’s progress in scalability and privacy protection, which will help institutional adoption. - Arthur Hayes continues to be optimistic about ETH reaching $10,000, and believes that its strength will trigger a super cycle of Altcoin, especially in the context of capital transfer and central bank money printing, the whale ETH holdings increased by 36% in June. - - Eugene is concerned about the ETH/BTC exchange rate breaking through the 0.022-0.027 range, with a medium-term target of 0.03. If ETH can stabilize at $4,000, a higher target of 0.04+ (corresponding to ETH at $5,200 when BTC is 130,000) is also possible. 8/12, Trader @KoroushAK Through chart analysis, it is believed that: - BTC is now in price discovery mode and will typically look for consolidation, breakout above resistance to enter long trades. - ETH has some positive news and is expected to remain strong as long as it does not fall below the $2,800 level. ⭐️ 3. Judging the overall trend of Altcoin and when to enter the altcoin season 9/12, Bloomberg analyst @JSeyff Based on the progress of supervision, he is optimistic about the prospects of altcoins. He predicts that the US SEC may approve spot ETFs for multiple mainstream Altcoin in the second half of 2025, among which LTC, SOL, and XRP have a 95% chance of approval, DOGE, HBAR, ADA, DOT, and AVAX have a 90% chance, SUI has a 60% chance, and TRX and PENGU have a 50% chance. If these expectations come true, it means that mainstream altcoins will usher in an era of ETFs and institutional buying to support the bottom, which is expected to significantly boost the popularity and capital flow of related tracks. 10/12, LD Capital founder Jack Yi @Jackyi_ld He is cautiously optimistic about the timing of the "altcoin season". He said that the real climax of the Altcoin market may not come until the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates. It is expected that after the interest rate cut is confirmed in August or September, market liquidity will overflow and the rise of Bitcoin will slow down, and a large amount of funds will turn to the altcoin field. In other words, although Altcoin have improved in the short term, it is difficult to explode in an all-round way. The altcoin season may not really start until the second half of the year. 11/12, @milesdeutscher He stressed that Altcoin are not "dead" and there are still a lot of hot money waiting for opportunities. Taking the PUMP public offering that raised $500 million in 12 minutes as an example, he believes that market sentiment and hot topics determine whether Altcoin can be launched. As long as the new story is attractive enough, funds will flow into the corresponding sector. ⭐️ 4. Summary of the above views 12/12 Summary BTC: After breaking through the historical high, the resilience shown by BTC and the capital structure behind it indicate that the current rise has a certain degree of sustainability. The entry of institutional funds, the promotion of ETFs, and the strengthening of macro hedging attributes make this round of market different from the previous bubble driven by pure retail investors. In the short term, it is not ruled out that Bitcoin will fluctuate or moderately correct at 120,000 (such as a 10-15% technical adjustment) to clean up excessive leverage and profit-taking, and accumulate momentum for subsequent rises. As long as it does not fall below key support (such as the 100,000 mark), the medium-term upward trend is expected to remain intact. It is worth noting that as prices hit new highs, volatility may increase. The event of a whale selling 80,000 bitcoins at a high price has not caused a sustained impact on the market for the time being, and the willingness to buy is strong. Overall, after experiencing multiple cycles, the market has reacted more rationally to such "whale events". It will not panic sell because of a single huge transfer, but observe its nature before making a judgment. ETH: As the second largest crypto asset by market value, Ethereum's current relatively lagging performance may only be a temporary phenomenon. Historical experience shows that after Bitcoin has led the rise for a period of time, funds tend to look for "value depressions", and ETH is one of the preferred targets. It is expected that ETH will generally strengthen with Bitcoin and make up for the rise in the subsequent market. You can pay attention to the changes in the ETH/BTC ratio. If ETH is relatively strong, it may indicate that funds are partially rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum. Altcoin: The altcoin season may still need to wait for a trigger, which may be the macro environment turning to easing (interest rate cuts), or the natural outflow of funds after Bitcoin's excessive increase. Mainstream leading altcoins (such as SOL, XRP, etc.) are expected to perform first, but for small and medium-sized altcoins, we should be cautious. Note that altcoins themselves have high volatility and low liquidity, so it is recommended to strictly control positions. In short, facing the volatility after Bitcoin hit a new high, it is recommended that you stop when you are ahead and do not be greedy for leverage. You can cash out part of the profits appropriately to lock in the gains, such as taking profits on some positions in batches and strictly setting stop losses. At the same time, if you are optimistic about the future market trend, hold a certain amount of stablecoins and buy them when there is a callback.