I warned everyone about the risks in the article last Saturday night, and it indeed came true.
Although BTC and ETH have been relatively stable at high levels these days, many Altcoins have already "fallen" - like $PUNT has retreated nearly 20% from its high, and the market rhythm has become "rise for two days, fall for a week", which is truly exhausting. However, it's not a complete wipeout. The $PENGU and $HAEDAL mentioned yesterday performed relatively well, especially #PUMP, which, despite rumors of the project team receiving over hundreds of millions of dollars, only added 4 million in liquidity, yet the price still remains above $5, which is quite bizarre. But it also indicates one thing: the funds are still there, and the sentiment is not dead.
Technical Perspective: Short-term Pressure, CPI is the Key Turning Point
Currently, the market is focused on tonight's 20:30 CPI data, as it directly relates to "interest rate cut expectations" and the Federal Reserve's attitude, with the upcoming US stock earnings season adding to the macroeconomic disturbance factors.
From a technical perspective, BTC encountered resistance at the $123,000 high point, briefly falling below the short-term support of $118,800 last night, with the lowest point touching $117,920, approximately a 2% pullback. According to CoinGlass data, this downward move was accompanied by over $800 million in liquidations, indicating a real need for technical cooling.
Trader CrypNuevo is also warning that the current market seems to be using the "pump and dump" playbook again, cautioning against being cut by the main forces. More interestingly, a Bitcoin whale who "hasn't moved for 14 years" suddenly transferred 40,000 out of 80,000 BTC to a new wallet, which is one of the most significant on-chain transfers in recent years!
Although the address has not taken further action yet, this move is enough to alert the entire market: is it preparing to cash out or moving to a new wallet for long-term holding? We need to observe, but regardless, the whale has moved, which means the undercurrents are starting to churn.
Pullback ≠ Bearish, Lack of FOMO is a Good Sign!
QCP Capital's attitude is worth noting. They point out that the current market has not yet shown signs of crazy FOMO (fear of missing out), which is actually a mature signal. Instead of chasing highs, it's better to quietly add positions during the adjustment.
This pullback is actually an easy win for me. Don't forget: US stocks are still hitting new highs, and BTC's trend basically follows US stocks, and the broader market is continuously releasing positive signals.
ETH Wash Complete, Quality Altcoin Rotation Opportunity Arrives!
Ethereum's pullback has actually washed out many floating chips, but on-chain data shows that institutions have been buying BTC and ETH in large quantities in recent weeks, which seems like a beautiful handover move. Whether Ethereum can initiate a new round of rebound with the CPI data tonight remains to be seen. Meanwhile, don't ignore those resilient coins -
- Public Chain Track: #SUI (stable trend), #ALGO, #HBAR, #XLM (US concept).
- Meme Track: #Pengu, #BONK, #Pepe, #Neiro, #Pnut, rotation continues.
- DeFi Direction: #UNI, #AAVE, #ETHFI and other leading projects are also attracting funds.
The market has now clearly differentiated, with quality projects rising and weak coins sinking. A true bull market is one that rises for those who are prepared. For #SOL, I added positions two weeks ago and still remain optimistic.
My Summary: Although the market is pulling back, the trend remains unchanged. The more BTC and ETH fall, the more I dare to add positions. If you're still hesitating about Altcoins, don't miss this chance again. Remember, institutions are already on board, and retail investors should be buying the dip. Remember: The biggest risk in a bull market is not daring to get in.
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