As the trend of listed companies hoarding cryptocurrencies surges, BTC's new high arrives "as expected". At a time when financial markets are generally focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, during the US stock market's closing period on July 9th, Bitcoin broke through the previous high from May 22nd, refreshing its historical highest price to nearly $112,000 per coin (CMC data shows $111,925.38), with an intraday increase of nearly 3%.
Federal Reserve's June Minutes Signal Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes published that day also brought complex but suggestive information to the market.
The minutes show that there are significant internal differences in monetary policy prospects, which can be divided into three main camps:
· Mainstream Camp: Most participants assessed that lowering the federal funds rate target range this year might be appropriate, but ruled out the possibility of an immediate rate cut in July. They generally believe the committee is "fully capable of waiting for a moment when inflation and economic activity prospects become clearer". The minutes noted that tariff pressures on inflation might be temporary or moderate, medium and long-term inflation expectations remain stable, and economic activity and labor market might show some weakening.
· Hawkish Camp: A few participants believed the federal funds rate target range should not be lowered this year, pointing out that "recent inflation data continues to exceed the committee's 2% target".
· Dovish Camp: A few participants (potentially including Federal Reserve governors Waller and Bowman, as hinted by "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos) indicated that if data developments align with their expectations, they would be willing to consider lowering the policy rate target range at the next meeting.
Despite internal differences, the signal that "most participants assess that a rate cut this year might be appropriate" undoubtedly enhanced market expectations of future liquidity easing, which is a positive macro catalyst for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders' Positions Reach 15-Year High
This breakthrough by Bitcoin is not without foundation. The latest on-chain data from ARK Invest and glassnode shows a powerful "ballast" force in the Bitcoin market - long-term holders (LTHs).
ARK Invest's latest "Bitcoin Monthly Report" points out that the total amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders currently reaches 74% of total supply, a proportion that hits a 15-year high. This strongly suggests experienced investors' firm belief and strong bullish expectations, as they choose to continue accumulating Bitcoin instead of selling during price increases, providing strong market support.
glassnode's data also confirms this trend. In the past five years, Bitcoin's balance on trading platforms has sharply declined twice, and each decline was accompanied by a significant Bitcoin price increase. Notably, since July 2024, Bitcoin's balance on trading platforms has been steadily declining. This indicates that investors are extracting Bitcoin from trading platforms to private wallets for long-term holding, reducing selling pressure. If history repeats, Bitcoin's bull market may have further room to run.
Although the ARK Invest report also mentions that the MVRV momentum indicator measuring market sentiment in the second quarter shows a decrease in on-chain capital flow, which might signal a short-term market enthusiasm cooldown, long-term holders' firm stance provides a solid foundation for Bitcoin prices, making it more resilient to short-term fluctuations.
Bitcoin "Bull Flag" Breaks Through Pointing to Higher Targets
Multiple renowned analysts are also optimistic about Bitcoin's upside potential from a technical perspective.
According to TradingShot analyst, since bottoming in November 2022, Bitcoin price has been in a clear upward channel that highly matches the Fibonacci channel tracking Bitcoin price since 2013. The analyst believes Bitcoin has transformed its previous "bull flag" top into support, which is a "strong bullish signal", and the price continues to remain above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $106,750.
TradingShot further predicts that from this "bull flag" breakthrough technically pointing to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension line, the target price might reach $168,500.
Additionally, famous trader Zerohedge noted on X platform that if Bitcoin follows its fractal pattern with M2 money supply, once the current consolidation period ends, Bitcoin price will enter a parabolic rise. This potential correlation between macro liquidity and Bitcoin price adds more optimistic tone to the current market.
glassnode found by comparing historical cycle data that the current cycle shares similarities with bull markets in 2017 and 2021 - in both cycles, Bitcoin price initiated a parabolic rise at a similar point in time and continued for nearly a year. This suggests that if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin still has enormous room for growth.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also pointed out that if Bitcoin follows the 2020 historical pattern, the price expansion in this cycle might have only a few months left, potentially peaking in October, approximately 550 days from the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024.
Bitcoin's this time refreshing historical new high is the result of multiple factors resonating - macro benefits, institutional adoption, listed companies hoarding cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations injected ample liquidity into the market, and long-term holders' firm positions constructed a solid price bottom. From the current market momentum, its upward trend is far from over, and the second half of the year might welcome an even stronger accelerating sprint.
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